NBA 2014 Rookies Hubris Index

hu· bris

ˈ(h)yo͞obrəs/

noun

Excessive pride or self-confidence. Hubris often indicates being out of touch with reality and overestimating one’s own competence or capabilities.

The 2014 NBA Draft saw one of the most highly touted classes in recent memory. Perhaps the most pressing issue on the rookies’ minds (after finding out what team they would be on) was what their NBA 2K15 rating would be. Before the official player ratings were released, Bleacher Report asked a few rookies what they guessed their ratings would be.

Using data from these interviews, the graph below shows 14 rookies’ predictions of their 2K15 ratings as well as their actual ratings. Here you can see most rookies overestimated their actual ranking – only Marcus Smart guessed his actual ranking correctly. One notable outlier can be seen in former Kentucky Wildcat and current LA Laker Julius Randle. Likely in jest, Randle predicted he’d be a 99. This high a number is rarely used, reserved only for the most elite of the elite players (Lebron James, the best player this year, has a 98 rating). Another thing to note – in the predicted rankings I took the mean prediction of players who gave multiple answers (“78 or 79” = 78.5). Similarly, if a player gave a range of numbers, I took the lowest number in that range (“Hopefully the eighties” = 80).

NBA 2014 Rooks 2K Ratings

The “Hubris Index” below was created by calculating the difference between predicted and actual ratings. Here you can see that Shabazz Napier and Doug McDermott sit on the “humility” end of the spectrum whereas Julius Randle and T.J. Warren lie on the “hubris” end. Those closest to 0, Marcus Smart and Jabari Parker, appear to have the best grasp of their true 2K abilities.

NBA Rooks 2014 Humility Index

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